The UK could be heading for another spell of unusually hot weather, with forecasting models suggesting temperatures may reach 34C in early September.
The latest weather model data point to a possible return of summer-like conditions after a cooler, wetter period across much of the country. The potential heat surge comes as the Met Office warns that late-season hot spells or heatwaves could develop during the first half of September.
For now, temperatures are expected to remain considerably lower. Southern parts of England could see temperatures in the low to mid-20s, while northern areas may reach the upper teens.
Rain is also expected across large parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, and England, providing some relief after a prolonged period of hot and dry weather.
Temperatures Could Reach 34 °C in Essex.
According to the latest GFS weather model, temperatures could begin climbing again towards the start of September.
The model suggests eastern parts of England could reach around 30C on September 1, while the Midlands could see highs close to 29C.
Warm conditions could extend further north, with temperatures potentially reaching 28 °C in parts of Yorkshire. South Wales could also see temperatures around 26C.
The biggest surge could arrive on September 2.
Forecast data currently indicates a potential high of 34 °C in Essex, while temperatures of 32 °C to 33 °C could become possible across wider areas of eastern and south-eastern England.
These figures are still forecasts and could change as the date approaches.
15 Counties Could Reach 31C or Higher
The GFS model indicates that as many as 15 counties in England could record temperatures of 31 °C or higher during a potential early September heat spell.
The counties currently highlighted by the model are concentrated mainly across eastern and south-eastern England.
They include:
Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Hertfordshire, Essex, Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Hampshire, Surrey, Kent, and Sussex.
If the forecast develops as currently indicated, residents across these areas could once again experience temperatures more typical of the height of summer.
However, long-range weather forecasts can change significantly, particularly when predicting specific temperatures more than a week ahead.
Weather Maps Show Another Warm Spell
Temperature anomaly maps for the beginning of September are also showing large areas of England and Wales in orange and red.
These colors indicate the potential for temperatures to rise above the seasonal average.
The strongest warmth appears focused on southern and eastern England, while northern parts of the UK are expected to remain cooler and wetter.
This could create a noticeable contrast between different parts of the country.
While southern areas potentially face another spell of high temperatures, Scotland and other northern regions may continue to see more unsettled conditions.
Met Office Warns of Possible Late-Season Heatwaves
The potential heat surge is broadly consistent with the Met Office’s longer-range outlook.
In its forecast covering September 2 to September 16, the Met Office says that late-season hot spells or heatwaves could develop, particularly across southern areas.
The outlook also suggests a possible northwest-to-southeast divide in weather conditions.
Northern areas could receive much of the rain and experience stronger winds, while southern parts of the country may remain comparatively dry.
This means the weather could feel very different depending on where people live.
For example, someone in northern Scotland could be dealing with rain and strong winds while residents in parts of Essex, Kent, or Sussex experience temperatures approaching the low-to-mid 30s.
What Counts as an Official UK Heatwave?
A period of very hot weather does not automatically qualify as an official heatwave.
The Met Office uses specific temperature thresholds for different parts of the UK. To officially declare a heatwave, temperatures must reach or exceed the relevant local threshold for at least three consecutive days.
The threshold is higher in south-eastern England, where temperatures generally run warmer.
In the south-east, the current threshold is 28 °C. It falls to around 25 °C in areas farther away from the south-east.
That means a forecast temperature of 34 °C would certainly represent intense heat in many parts of the country, but whether it becomes an official heatwave would depend on temperatures remaining above the relevant threshold for the required period.
Cooler Weather Before the Potential Heat Surge
The possible September heat follows a much cooler, wetter spell.
Southern England is expected to remain around the low to mid-20s in the short term, while northern areas could stay in the high teens.
Rain across Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, and parts of England will also bring some relief following weeks of unusually dry conditions.
The rainfall could be particularly welcome in areas affected by drought and water shortages.
However, if temperatures climb sharply again in early September, the return of hot, dry weather could pose fresh challenges for water resources, agriculture, and vulnerable people.
Forecasts Could Still Change
It is important to remember that the 34 °C prediction comes from a weather forecasting model and is not a confirmed temperature forecast.
Weather models become less reliable the further into the future they look. Small changes in atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and high-pressure systems can significantly alter the final outcome.
The exact location and intensity of the potential heat could therefore change before September arrives.
Still, the current model signals suggest that summer-like heat may not be over in the UK just yet.
Another Hot Spell Could Be on the Way
The prospect of another 34 °C heat surge is likely to attract attention after a summer marked by extreme heat and dry weather.
Current forecasts point towards the strongest warmth developing across eastern and south-eastern England, with 15 counties potentially reaching at least 31 °C.
The Met Office has also indicated that late-season hot spells or heatwaves remain possible during the first half of September.
For now, residents can expect a cooler and wetter spell in many parts of the UK. But if the latest models prove accurate, temperatures could climb rapidly once September begins.
The forecast will become clearer as the country approaches the start of the month.
